Rangel-Espaillat, Round 2

The race for the 13th Congressional District is shaping to up to be a replay of the 2012 contest, with Rep. Charles Rangel facing a tough challenge from state Sen. Adriano Espaillat as well as from a political newcomer who could steal support from the incumbent’s base. 

But while another tight race is certainly likely—Rangel beat Espaillat by fewer than 1,100 votes in a Democratic primary two years ago— the final outcome this time around is anybody’s guess. 

“What I’m seeing is a sort of a déjà vu all over again race, a three-way race, one Hispanic, the demographics of the district being what they are, and Espaillat losing by 1,000 votes the last time,” said Doug Muzzio, a professor of public affairs at Baruch College. “The dynamic could be the same. But the end result could be different. Espaillat could certainly win.” 

The landscape is not exactly the same, of course. Espaillat’s narrow loss established him as a candidate to be reckoned with, and he is already stealing away some key endorsements from elected officials who went with Rangel last time around, including potentially pivotal ones by New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark- Viverito and Bronx Borough President Rubén Díaz Jr. At the same time Rangel, who was hobbled by poor health during the last campaign, has been remarkably active this year. 

Rev. Michael Walrond, who like Rangel has a base of support among African-Americans in Harlem, could also draw more support than Clyde Williams, the former advisor to President Bill Clinton who came in third place with 10 percent of the vote in 2012. One political consultant not involved in the race said that Walrond’s strength lies in central Harlem, an area that has experienced an influx of new residents who don’t have strong ties to Rangel or the old Harlem machine. 

“He’s a really talented minister who pastors a historic church in Harlem,” the consultant, Basil Smikle Jr., said of Walrond. “Among those newer residents he’s getting a lot of traction. He’s been there because of the work that he’s done as pastor of that church. So his goal is to really build on that and get people that generally just come out in presidential elections or general elections to actually vote in a primary.” 

Nonetheless, many observers see the race as a showdown between Rangel and Espaillat. Another demographic shift—the increasing population and political power of immigrants from the Dominican Republican, where Espaillat hails from—may be the decisive factor in the race. The support of Mark-Viverito, who is of Puerto Rican descent and the highest ranking Hispanic elected official in New York City history, could broaden Espaillat’s base, especially if the Council Speaker takes an active role in campaigning and getting out the vote in East Harlem. 

“So there’s a sense that rather than go with someone who has been there a long time and who they’ve forged this historic relationship with, let’s make sure that we get on the ground floor and devise a coalition to bring in the next leader for this community, assuming that person happens to be Adriano and represents a growing constituency, not just in the district but in New York politics broadly,” Smikle said. 

Another question mark is the Bronx, where the population of Dominicans has been on the rise. Redistricting after the 2010 Census added a larger portion of the borough to Rangel’s Manhattan district, which could make Borough President Díaz’s change in allegiance to Espaillat all the more significant. Two former Bronx borough presidents, Fernando Ferrer and Adolfo Carrión Jr., backed Espaillat in 2012, and while they have not yet declared their intention to do so once again, it can be anticipated that they will stick with him. 

Meanwhile, the Bronx Democratic Party, which came out for Rangel two years ago, has yet to endorse in this race, though the shift by Díaz, who wields sizable clout within the organization, could be an indication of where the party might land. Assemblyman Carl Heastie, the leader of the Bronx Democratic Committee, said that the organization was undecided at the moment but would make a decision shortly. 

Still, Rangel enjoys the undeniable advantages of incumbency. While there is a compelling narrative that Espaillat represents the future, for many residents the knee-jerk reaction is to cast their ballots for Rangel, who has served in the House of Representatives since 1971. The congressman can also expect widespread support from the Democratic Party establishment, much as he did in 2012. In that race Gov. Andrew Cuomo, then Mayor Michael Bloomberg and a number of state and local elected officials endorsed him, as did a slew of influential unions. 

Rangel also has strong support from Harlem’s old guard, including former Gov. David Paterson, former Mayor David Dinkins and Assemblyman Keith Wright, the head of the Manhattan Democratic Party and co-chair of the state Democratic Party. One pronounced difference this cycle is that Rangel will not have in his corner Bill Lynch, the mastermind behind many of his successful campaigns, who died last year. 

“The key variable in the back of my mind is Bill Lynch ain’t around any more, and Bill Lynch was an absolutely integral part of Charlie Rangel’s various campaigns,” Muzzio said. “And I don’t know how much the absence of a strategic mastermind will play in this particular race, but if there’s a missing variable that’s obviously different than the last time, it’s that Bill Lynch is not there.” 

Rangel, a 22-term incumbent, is certainly getting older, but his age may be less of a hindrance this year than it was during the last campaign, when he seemed frail and had to limit his campaigning. 

“He was not well two years ago. He was not well,” said Wright, the Rangel ally who political observers have often speculated to be the congressman’s preferred successor when the time came for him to relinquish his seat. “He’s like a 23-year-old guy now trying to run for district leader or Assembly. He’s got more energy than I’ve ever seen. He went to see Ponce de León and the fountain of youth.” 

Espaillat, who is seeking to tie Rangel to Washington gridlock, said that he looked forward to a robust debate and a tough campaign. 

“I’m happy that he’s in good health, and we’ll have a spirited debate throughout the campaign,” Espaillat said.