Faso-Teachout is the ultimate insider vs. outsider race, and it’s anyone’s guess who will win

Congressional District 19 candidates Republican John Faso and Democrat Zephyr Teachout face off in a debate at WAMC's performing arts studio last month in Albany. (Paul Buckowski/Times Union)

In 2014, Sean Eldridge bought a $5 million mansion in the Hudson Valley with his husband, a co-founder of Facebook, and mounted a campaign for Congress against U.S. Rep. Chris Gibson, the popular Republican incumbent.

Republicans launched a successful counter-attack against Eldridge, portraying the Democratic candidate as a carpetbagger and outsider who was oblivious to the needs of the 19th Congressional District, which spans parts of 11 counties in the Hudson Valley. Eldridge significantly outspent Gibson, but ultimately lost by 30 points.

So when Gibson announced he would retire in 2016, and the primaries were won by John Faso, a Republican who has lived in the district for decades, and Democrat Zephyr Teachout, who moved there last year, it seemed like a safe bet the GOP would deploy the same tactic.

Indeed, Faso’s campaign has labeled Teachout as a carpetbagger and a “downstater,” an epithet implying that she is beholden to New York City interests. Teachout moved from Brooklyn to Dutchess County in March 2015, while Faso has lived in Kinderhook, a town in Columbia County, for 35 years.

The strategy hasn’t worked as well this time around. The two candidates are in a virtual dead heat, according to a late September Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll showing Faso ahead of Teachout 43-42, a negligible advantage well within the poll’s margin of error.

Teachout has sought to establish common ground with local voters, apparently with some success, by touting her own rural roots in nearby Vermont (though some might consider a “Vermonter” as only marginally better than a “downstater”) and the local support and connections she built up during her campaigns against hydrofracking and the state’s Common Core education standards. Downplaying her party affiliation as a Democrat, she is also promoting herself as an “outsider,” in contrast to Faso’s long tenure in the state Assembly.

“I think you’re seeing people saying, ‘Let’s have some structural fundamental changes,’” Teachout said. “The lobbyist, career politician isn’t working for us and you see that on the right and left and I believe the beating heart of this district is its independents.”

Of course, Teachout isn’t exactly new to New York politics. She ran against Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary in 2014 and drew attention for winning about a third of the vote thanks to the support of liberals who were frustrated with Cuomo’s centrist policies.

Republicans hope that voters who supported Gibson, who was respected for his deep ties in the district, will see Faso as the same kind of candidate. One obvious difference is Gibson’s relatively brief tenure as an elected official. Gibson, who has endorsed Faso, pledged to serve no more than four terms, and is voluntarily stepping aside after just six years in Congress. In a sign of Gibson’s crossover appeal, Teachout has also been quick to say she respects the outgoing incumbent.

Faso, who served in the Assembly from 1987 to 2002, was the chamber’s minority leader from 1998 until 2002, when he made a failed run for state comptroller. In 2006, Faso announced a gubernatorial bid against Eliot Spitzer, but lost that race, too. In 2003, he became a partner at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, a consulting firm, although he now longer works there.

That experience is a strength, Faso asserts. “I do know something about government and I think that experience if useful,” he said. “You don’t want to get on an airline with a pilot doing his first flight. I think the reason she’s attacked me unfairly and falsely is that she just moved here. She has no record here, she has never voted in a general election here in the district.”

Their agendas overlap on some matters, at least according to their official campaign websites. Both list job creation and economic development as a top priority, along with lower property taxes, support for gun ownership and national security. But on such hot-button issues as abortion rights, immigration and environmental issues, the candidates align predictably with their respective party platforms.

During the 2014 gubernatorial primary, Teachout called for increased education funding, decriminalizing marijuana and passage of the Dream Act, which would provide state-funded scholarships for young undocumented immigrants. She praised the Safe Act, Cuomo’s signature gun control law, but has drawn scrutiny for shifting her stance and coming out in opposition to the controversial legislation. During his own run for governor against Spitzer, Faso, who had developed a reputation as a budget expert in Albany, emphasized lower taxes, fiscal conservatism and education reform.

What remains to be seen is which combination of arguments and experiences wins out in the contest, which is one of the most expensive House races in the country. Democrats have narrowed the enrollment gap in recent years, putting the two major parties on fairly equal footing – although a large bloc of independent voters makes the swing seat even more unpredictable.

“Maybe this isn’t one to make your election bets with,” Bruce Gyory, a Democratic political consultant at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, said of the marquee matchup. “This is just one to just observe.”

Earlier this month, Faso appeared at an event in Petersburgh to listen to an update from state and local officials on the water contamination that has rocked the area, including Hoosick Falls. He was not scheduled to speak at the event, and instead took a seat in the crowd to listen with other citizens. Given the serious nature of the contamination, Faso was reserved while speaking to citizens and state officials as they arrived, but he cracked a smile and joked with a young mother who was teaching her child to walk before the event began.

In an interview with City & State before the event, Faso brought up Gibson as a model for how he wants to work across party lines to get things done and appeal to both Democrats and Republicans. But Faso said he also knows that voters tend to revert back to their party affiliation in an open contest.

“Maybe this isn’t one to make your election bets with. This is just one to just observe.” – Democratic political consultant Bruce Gyory

“I think many Democrats who live in the areas I’ve previously represented are supporting me, but it’s harder when you’re first running to get them to go across party lines,” Faso said. “You listen to people and you understand that not all the political wisdom resides on one side of the political aisle. Compromise is not a dirty word. Our system is predicated on compromise.”

When delving into policy issues, Faso provides specific details of his agenda without any prompting. One of the major issues for voters in the 19th Congressional District is the rising cost of property taxes. Faso has proposed federal legislation that would eliminate a state’s ability to impose some of its Medicaid costs onto localities, which he said contributes largely to the cost of property taxes. Faso said $9 billion is the total amount localities spent on Medicaid costs throughout the whole country – with $7.5 billion of that coming from New York.

“Remove that provision which authorizes it in federal law and then over a five-year period, under my proposal, the state would have to gradually assume that cost and reform its program to fix this mandate on the taxpayers,” he said.

Faso also supports broad tax reform but criticized the state’s economic development programs, such as Start-Up NY, which he said favor only a few and gives government officials too much influence in deciding who gets state contracts.

“If you just inspire people broadly to do this, you’ll have more synergistic activity in the economy,” he said. “I think that’s the fundamental difference in what I see as this top-down economic development that Cuomo does, which has gotten a lot of favor from state and local officials. Level the playing field and make it easier for businesses to invest.”

Rep. Chris Gibson with John Faso. (John Faso for Congress)

The following day, Teachout was scheduled to appear at a festival in Coxsackie, a town in Greene County. Her event was scheduled for 3 p.m., but the festival’s organizer was never told Teachout was going to appear and told venders they could pack up after the band finished at 3 p.m. Teachout arrived to a mostly empty parking lot to introduce herself to the remaining vendors still packing up. Still, about 10 supporters showed up to the empty parking lot.

The first question was about property taxes. Denouncing the property tax burden on homeowners, Teachout laid out her plan for a “circuit breaker,” a tax credit based on income. However, when pressed on the matter later, she acknowledged it would need to be passed at the state level, not in Congress.

Teachout took questions from residents for nearly an hour, interjecting with jokes and teasing. Where Faso comes across as more reserved, Teachout is vivacious and cheery. Two men with a camera filmed the whole scene for a documentary being made by the America Rising Super PAC, a Republican political action committee that films opposition research on Democratic candidates. The carpetbagging issue was brought up only briefly.

Rep. Chris Gibson with Zephyr Teachout. (Zephyr Teachout for Congress)

While answering questions, Teachout emphasized how she is running against “big donors” and “special interests,” and the lines resonated with the small gathering. One of the attendee remarked that the U.S. economy is “like it’s back to when two, three trusts controlled everything.”

“When I’m in Congress I’m going to be really focused on economic development, small business owners, small-scale farms, and that means working across the board with members of my own party, working with Republicans, just to try to get things done and move past some of the nonsense,” Teachout said later during an interview. “What I hear from people everywhere in the district is that they’re looking for someone who is going to be independent.”

However, Faso has charged Teachout with being funded by “New York City interests.” The race has gained national attention – and with it, big money. The contest is one of the most expensive House races in the country, with $4.7 million spent so far, according to The Center for Responsive Politics, which also tallied $3.8 million in outside spending.

According to the latest campaign filings, Teachout leads Faso in campaign contributions, raising $1.6 million since July, and has about $1.5 million on hand. Faso raised about $922,000 since July and has about $356,000 on hand.

Looming over Teachout and Faso’s campaigns is the presidential contest, which could be a major factor in the race.

“The other factor is with obviously what’s going on at the top of the ticket,” said Republican political consultant John McArdle, who believes Hillary Clinton will win the presidency. “For people who are concerned about her, don’t like her, don’t trust her – which is I think most of the country – having a Republican Congress is critical. For all those reasons, I think John is going to win.”

McArdle also argued that Bernie Sanders supporters will not turn out to vote with Clinton at the top of the ticket, although Sanders has campaigned for Teachout in the district. Gyory, the Democratic consultant, said it will be critical to see if diehard Trump fans turn out to vote.

Faso has received criticism for expressing support for his party’s candidate, but he has refused to say whether he will actually vote for Trump, even after the recent allegations of sexual assault after Trump was caught boasting about it on a 2005 tape.

“Anything that’s said in a campaign in October, you have to take with some skepticism, so I’m still waiting to see how this unfolds,” Faso said. “There’s still time to decide my vote.”

Teachout accused Faso of “talking out both sides of his mouth” and likened Trump to Bill Cosby. She will vote for Clinton in November.

Yet some political observers believe the outcome will come down to Teachout and Faso, not the presidential candidates.

“The stakes are very high. I’ve been calling this the marquee race in the state and I’m sticking with that characterization of it,” Gyory said. “It’s drawn the most outside money, both candidates are raising money.”

He added: “It’s gonna be wild.”

Correction: An earlier version of this post incorrectly indicated that John Faso still works at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips. He no longer works there.