New York's most competitive congressional races

All across New York, key congressional races are shaping up.

The North Country’s Rep. Elise Stefanik, a target of the national progressive movement eager to take down Republican incumbents in the upcoming election, gained a Democratic challenger and lost two others last week. Former MSNBC host Dylan Ratigan hopped into the Democratic primary, and the departures of Tanya Boone and Sara Idleman left the field a little less crowded.

In Western New York, Republican firebrand Rep. Chris Collins also initially faced a raft of progressive challengers, but as of this month there are now only two Democratic candidates left, Nick Stankevich and Nathan McMurray, who has received the endorsement of the district’s eight county chairs.

But despite the winnowed roster of Democrats eager to take them down, neither Stefanik nor Collins’ seats are rated as vulnerable by the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball or Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzalez/Roll Call, which analyze competitive races and political trends. However, there are several New York districts that are currently in play or may become more competitive. Here is a guide to the races to watch.

DEMOCRATS

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Rep. Thomas Suozzi

Cook: Likely Democratic

Sabato: Likely Democratic

Roll Call: Solid Democratic

Suozzi’s district encompasses the north shore of Long Island, including parts of Nassau and Suffolk counties and Queens. But while the previous holder of Suozzi’s seat, Rep. Steve Israel, was able to keep his district for 16 years, the freshman lawmaker may face a challenge in 2018. GOP opponent Dan DeBono counts Robert and Diana Mercer, prominent Republican donors, as two of his supporters. Suozzi is also facing a primary challenge from Josh Sauberman, who appears to be trying to outflank him on the left. However, Suozzi far outpaces his opponents in terms of cash on hand. Suozzi has over $1 million in campaign funds, while DeBono has just over $100,000 and Sauberman has a little over $1,000.

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Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney

Cook: Likely Democratic

Sabato: Likely Democratic

Roll Call: Solid Democratic

The Hudson Valley Democrat was listed by the National Republican Congressional Committee last year as a candidate it believes is vulnerable in the 2018 elections, along with Suozzi. However, Maloney has over $2 million in cash on hand. Sakima Brown, a Republican who also ran in 2016 with Mercer support, has filed with the Federal Elections Commission for the 2018 election. She has a little over $38,000 in cash on hand. NYPD Officer Jarred Buchanan and Orange County Legislator James O’Donnell are also running on the Republican line.

REPUBLICANS

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Rep. John Faso

Cook: Toss-up

Sabato: Toss-up

Roll Call: Tilt Republican

The Republican easily dispatched Zephyr Teachout in the 2016 election, but may face more of a challenge as he seeks a second term in 2018. There are several Democratic candidates vying for Faso’s seat, including Gareth Rhodes, a former staffer for Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who recently signed on prominent communications firm Metropolitan Public Strategies to guide his campaign. Perhaps feeling the pressure of a potential Democratic wave election, Faso has recently diverged from the Republican line, as he voted against the Republican tax plan passed last year and recently announced his support for raising the age at which a person can buy guns to 21. Faso’s campaign war chest is also outmatched by two of his Democratic challengers. He currently has over $700,000 in cash on hand, whereas Antonio Delgado has over $1 million and Brian Flynn has over $970,000. Other Democratic candidates include Patrick Ryan, David Clegg and Jeffrey Beals. Former “Law and Order: Special Victims Unit” actress Diane Neal launched an independent bid earlier this month.

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Rep. Claudia Tenney

Cook: Toss-up

Sabato: Toss-up

Roll Call: Tilt Republican

Tenney made news this month for saying that many mass shooters “end up being Democrats,” drawing scrutiny to her connection with the NRA and history as a gun rights advocate. Tenney seems to be following President Donald Trump’s playbook of doubling down, blaming “liberals and the media” for politicizing her comments. FiveThirtyEight reports that Tenney votes in line with Trump’s positions 97 percent of the time. She is in a heated race with Democratic Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi, and a September poll found that Brindisi had a slim lead over Tenney. Brindisi also raised more than Tenney in the final months of 2017, and has over $580,000 in cash on hand compared to the incumbent’s $573,000.

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Rep. Dan Donovan

Cook: Lean Republican

Sabato: Likely Republican

Roll Call: Likely Republican

Donovan is facing a challenge from the man he replaced, former Rep. Michael Grimm. Grimm stepped down in 2015 after pleading guilty to felony tax fraud and was sentenced to eight months in prison. Apparently assuming that Staten Island voters love a comeback, Grimm launched his campaign to retake his seat in October, receiving support from unconventional backers like former Trump strategist Steve Bannon. Donovan is also facing a formidable Democratic challenger in Max Rose, a military veteran and activist who is receiving national Democratic support. Donovan and Rose have been reeling in big campaign donations, and both were among the top New York congressional candidates that received the most money in the final quarter of 2018. Donovan currently has over $700,000 in cash on hand, while Rose has nearly $500,000. But before Rose can face Donovan – or Grimm – he must win a crowded primary. Other Democratic candidates include Omar Vaid, who has built a strong following on social media, Boyd Melson, Radhakrishna Mohan, Zach Emig, Michael DeVito and Mike DeCillis.

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Rep. Lee Zeldin

Cook: Likely Republican

Sabato: Likely Republican

Roll Call: Solid Republican

Like Tenney, Zeldin has embraced Trump, although he did vote against the tax plan and the most recent budget bill. Zeldin also has ties to Bannon. He is facing a few Democratic challengers, including private equity executive Perry Gershon, who only recently moved to the district. Zeldin has also been fundraising heavily, and currently has over $1 million in cash on hand, compared to Gershon’s $800,000. Other Democratic candidates include term-limited Suffolk County Legislator Kate Browning, former county Legislator Vivian Viloria Fisher, David Pechefsky, Elaine DiMasi and Brendon Henry.

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Rep. John Katko

Cook: Likely Republican

Sabato: Likely Republican

Roll Call: Likely Republican

Event though Hillary Clinton won Katko’s district in the 2016 election, he has voted in line with Trump’s policy positions 91 percent of the time. Nonetheless, Democrats haven’t been able to field strong challengers in this swing district. Former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner declined to run against Katko, and his declared challengers lag behind in fundraising. Katko currently has over $1 million in cash on hand. His Democratic challengers include Anne Messenger, who has over $37,000 in her campaign coffers, and Syracuse University professor Dana Balter, who recently won the endorsement of Onandaga County Democrats.

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Rep. Tom Reed

Cook: Not listed

Sabato: Likely Republican

Roll Call: Solid Republican

Although Reed’s seat is likely safe, the moderate Republican and co-chairman of the bipartisan Problem Solvers caucus may be in danger because of his active role in promoting the Republican tax overhaul. Reed helped craft the compromise that kept the state and local property tax deduction in the bill, but capped it at $10,000. He is facing a raft of Democratic challengers, but Reed has over $1 million in cash on hand and is in a district that supported Trump in the 2016 election. Democrat Linda Andrei has raised the second highest amount of any candidate in the district, with over $100,000 in cash on hand. Other Democrats include Edward Sundquist, Max Della Pia, Ian Golden, Rick Gallant and Tracy Mitrano. Another candidate, Charles Whalen, recently suspended his campaign.

Correction: An earlier version of this post had the incorrect name of a candidate running against Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. The candidate is Orange County Legislator James O’Donnell.