Why de Blasio doesn’t have to worry about latest poll numbers – yet

Political polls are like candy to reporters and political junkies – ready-made for easy headlines, deliberation and, of course, scrutiny.

The latest Quinnipiac University poll gauging New York City voters’ approval of Mayor Bill de Blasio and how he stacks up against potential 2017 rivals serves as confirmation bias for the prevailing narrative that the federal investigations that have enveloped City Hall might imperil his re-election. De Blasio’s approval rating dropped from 50-42 in January to 41-52 this go-around, and 52 percent of voters polled say the mayor does not deserve to be re-elected.

But a closer look at how de Blasio’s re-election chances were framed in Quinnipiac’s methodology shows that it doesn’t quite capture the electoral reality in New York City – where defeating even an embattled incumbent Democratic mayor will be incredibly difficult.

Quinnipiac polled de Blasio’s chances against several of his rumored 2017 mayoral rivals – city Comptroller Scott Stringer, Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams and Bronx Borough President Rubén Díaz Jr. The poll shows de Blasio eking out a victory against all three, but by very narrow margins: 37-36 vs. Stringer; 35-34 vs. Adams; 37-32 vs. Díaz.

So de Blasio’s in trouble, right? Not so fast.

In this hypothetical election scenario Stringer, Adams and Díaz were cast as independent candidates in a general election, rather than Democratic primary opponents, which would be a far more likely scenario if all three decided to challenge de Blasio next year. As such, the polling sample includes the opinions of Republican and independent city voters and gives short shrift to Democratic voters, who still have a relatively high opinion of de Blasio – a 58% approval rating – a number that could deter any serious Democratic challenger.

Pitting de Blasio against a more likely Republican or independent voter – as Quinnipiac did in January with former NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly, with de Blasio prevailing 50-35 – would paint a more accurate picture of the mayor’s re-election chances, but for some reason that scenario was not included this time around. And the same goes for one-on-one Democratic primary matchups versus the three aforementioned “independent” challengers – if that poll found similar results, with all three candidates pulling de Blasio below the 40 percent threshold to avoid a runoff, you might see an emboldened Stringer, Adams or Díaz throwing their hat in the race.

Some will look at Stringer’s relatively high approval rating (53 percent) as evidence that he has some wind behind his sails for a possible 2017 challenge. But as John Liu, Bill Thompson and countless other comptrollers-turned-mayoral candidates learned, being the city’s financial steward is not the sexiest platform to make a run at City Hall. It’s a lot easier for voters to latch on to tangible, effective policy decisions like Paid Sick Leave and universal pre-K than it is for any number of audits and reports issued by the comptroller’s office.

This is not to say that de Blasio has nothing to worry about. A nine-point dip in approval rating is problematic, and 45 percent of voters say de Blasio is neither honest nor trustworthy – the same persistent criticism that has dogged Hillary Clinton throughout the presidential campaigns. And if Preet Bharara hands down indictments as a result of the multiple City Hall corruption investigations, those numbers will likely get worst.

But artificial electoral matchups bandied by pollsters at this early stage work better as conversation starters rather than political gospel.